0x90 Model documentation

The parts, named and defined

No secret algorithm. These are the components the system is built from and the measures it reports, in plain language.

0x91 Components

What the system is made of

Technical indicators
Standard, published measures of momentum, volatility and trend strength, computed on several timeframes. Defined below.
Statistical models
Methods that describe relationships between series — for example, how two markets have moved relative to each other.
Machine-learning components
Models fitted to historical data that weigh many inputs together and classify the current market regime.
Language interpretation
A layer that turns the numerical state into a written reading, including an explicit statement when inputs conflict.
Risk rules
Fixed checks on volatility, liquidity and exposure that sit between a signal and any position size. These are rules, not learned behaviour.
0x92 Glossary

Indicators and measures

Each of these appears in readouts or trade records on this site.

MACDMoving Average Convergence Divergence

The difference between a fast and a slow exponential moving average of price. When the fast average is above the slow one, recent prices are running above the longer-term average and MACD is positive.

DIF is that difference. DEA is a moving average of DIF, often called the signal line. The histogram is DIF minus DEA, and shows whether momentum is building or fading.

RSIRelative Strength Index

A 0–100 measure comparing the size of recent gains with recent losses. High readings mean gains have dominated; low readings mean losses have.

RSI describes how stretched a move is. It does not say when the move will end.

ATRAverage True Range

The average size of an instrument's recent price range, including gaps. It measures how much the instrument typically moves, not which way.

We express it as a percentage of price and use it for position sizing: the wider the typical range, the smaller the position.

ADXAverage Directional Index

A measure of trend strength, regardless of direction. By convention, readings below about 20 indicate a weak or absent trend and readings above about 25 indicate an established one.

A momentum signal with a low ADX is a signal without a trend behind it.

MFEMaximum Favourable Excursion

The furthest price moved in a trade's favour while it was open. It shows the best outcome that was ever available.

MAEMaximum Adverse Excursion

The furthest price moved against a trade while it was open. Compared with the final result, it shows how much of the adverse move the exit avoided.

0x93 Limitations

Where the models fall short

  • Every indicator here is calculated from past prices. None of them leads the market.
  • Fitted models assume the future resembles the data they were fitted on. Regime changes break that assumption.
  • A written interpretation can read more certain than the numbers behind it. Check the numbers.
  • Confidence grades describe agreement among inputs, not the likelihood of profit.

Methodology →