Momentum indicators are always computed over a window. Change the window and you change the answer. An asset that has risen for the last few hours can still be falling over the last few days, and both statements are true at once.
This is not a flaw in the indicators. It is a description of the market: a short-term bounce inside a longer-term decline looks exactly like this. The question is what a research system should say when it sees it.
The tempting answer
The tempting answer is to pick the timeframe that produces a signal. Short-term momentum is positive, so the system says “long”. This always produces something to act on, which is why it is tempting.
It also throws away the most important fact on the screen — that the larger trend has not agreed.
Trend strength as the tie-breaker
ADX measures how strong a trend is without regard to its direction. By convention, a reading below about 20 means there is little trend at all. When timeframes disagree and ADX is low, the honest reading is that the market is not trending and the short-term move has nothing behind it.
The BTC trade in our journal is an example. One-hour MACD was positive, four-hour MACD was negative, and ADX was 14.7. The position was opened on the short-term reading and closed at a loss ten hours later, having never been more than 0.065% in profit.
What we take from it
“Conflicting signals” is a legitimate output. A system that can say it will produce fewer signals, and that is the point: the absence of a signal is information too.
This note is educational. It is not investment advice.